Award: OCE-1325484

Outcomes Report Global climate change is causing the oceans to warm, and this warming is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. However, the pace of warming is not uniform in space or in time. Our project, which is a collaboration between scientists at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, the University of Maine, Stony Brook University, and NOAA, was developed to understanding the impact of both long-term warming trends and abrupt temperature events on marine ecosystems and fisheries, with the Gulf of Maine serving as our an example ecosystem. Our project documented the unusual rate of warming in the Gulf of Maine and northwest Atlantic. Since 1982, this region has warmed at four times the global ocean average, and between 2004-2013, the region experienced a decadal warming rate that few large marine ecosystems have ever experienced. The warming is strongest in the summer and fall, leading to a longer period of summer-like temperatures in the region. The temperature trends and events we have documented resulted in clear changes in the ecosystem. We found that the extension of warm conditions in the fall is having a bigger impact on the fish community than the changes in timing of the spring temperature transition. We also found that not recognizing the impact of warming on Gulf of Maine cod led managers to set fishing quotas too high, contributing to the effective collapse of this iconic fishery. Finally, we characterized the range of temperatures that allow lobster populations to be most productive. Warming in the early 2000s pushed temperatures in southern New England beyond this zone, leading to a sharp decline in lobster in that region. In contrast, temperatures off of Maine became more favorable, allowing lobsters to increase in abundance. Future warming will likely lead to a decline in lobster off of the Maine coast, but protections for larger lobsters that have been championed by lobstermen in Maine for many years will slow the rate of decline. The market for lobsters is complex, involving trade between the US and Canada and between both nations and emerging markets in Asia. The expansion of demand in Asia has led to higher prices in recent years, but it suggests that the lobster industry is vulnerable to changes in the global economy and global trade. The findings of this study have been conveyed to many audiences, including scientists and fishery managers in the US and abroad. These findings will also be shared with the majority of middle school students in Maine through the Gulf of Maine Research Institute?s LabVenture! program. This project supported the development of an interactive educational experience that uses the story of black sea bass and lobster to help students and their teachers understand how scientists study climate impacts in the ocean. The experience went live in the fall of 2018 and will be seen by more than 10,000 students each year. Last Modified: 11/08/2018 Submitted by: Andrew C Thomas