Award: OCE-1426308

The Coastal SEES project compared marshes in the Plum Island Massachusetts region to marshes in Virginia and in Georgia. First, changes in marsh area and marsh elevation at all sites were modeled in the same modeling framework to obtain projections of marsh biophysical changes resulting from sea-level rise. Second interviews were conducted to uncover which Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) provided by the marsh were of most value to citizens in each location. Finally, groups were asked to put an economic value on preserving marshes given projections of possible marsh loss. For both the CES and economic surveys a common methodology was employed so results could be easily compared between sites. Results of the biophysical model projection for Plum Island generally agreed with previous modeling approaches, although less overall loss was predicted because previous models had assumed great headland erosion of marshes bordering the sound and major tidal creeks. The projections suggested that Plum Island marshes were somewhat resilient to sea-level rise over the next 80 years. This resiliency comes in part because they are currently situation high in the tidal frame and have more scope to absorb initial inundation. However, given moderate to high predication of sea-level rise there would be a very significant change in the marsh structure. Most of the current marsh would convert from what is now "high marsh", marshes flooded only a few times a month and dominated by salt marsh hay (Spartina patens) , to low elevation marshes dominated by cord grass (Spartina alterniflora). Beyond 2100 the marsh is limited in its ability to keep up with sea-level rise by low sediment inputs from the watershed. The prediction is that with medium to high levels of sea-level rise the marsh will eventually be lost. Increasing sediments by removing dams does not provide enough sediment to markedly change the predictions. Focus groups were asked to discuss their view of marsh Cultural Ecosystem Services which are the nonmaterial benefits people obtain from ecosystems, including "cultural diversity, spiritual and religious values, knowledge systems, educational values, inspiration, aesthetic values, social relations, sense of place, cultural heritage values, recreation and ecotourism". All three sites placed high value on the marsh for these non-economic benefits in spite of the fact that the local community around the Plum Island marshes derive substantial economic benefits from shell fishing and tourism. In Massachusetts "serenity" was ranked as a high value for the marsh and threats to the marsh were believed to be land development. There was considerable support for activities that would results in marsh conservation. This did not differ to much from the other two state where non-economic benefits were also considered to be very valuable. This data and an economic analysis have helped build better models of wetland values and clearly separate out the importance of economic drivers vs. cultural values. It is important to know that in all three states considerable value was placed upon cultural services and that there was a willingness to pay to preserve wetlands. This willingness to pay is responsive to extent and type of change in the habitat, and household characteristics such as income and proximity to marshes. This data was shared with the general public and with managers in the region. The project showed strong support for helping preserve marshes, and this was something of great interest to managers. Last Modified: 04/03/2020 Submitted by: Anne E Giblin