Project: Predicting impacts of coastal species redistribution in a changing climate

NSF Award Abstract:
This project will improve our ability to anticipate the impacts of shifts in the geographic range of coastal species in a changing climate. Although range shifts may be necessary for some species to avoid extinction as the climate warms, the arrival of new ones to an ecosystem can also lead to population declines and loss of biodiversity. The investigator is developing approaches to predict the impacts of range shifts along Pacific shorelines using techniques that have been previously validated for risk assessments for invasive species. The research objectives of this study are integrated with educational activities: engagement of undergraduate and graduate students in data collection and analysis and implementation of a hierarchical mentoring program to serve English Language Learners within the investigator’s Minority Serving Institution. The investigator is also partnering with outreach organizations in the U.S. and Mexico to educate K-12 students and multiple stakeholder groups about climate-driven range shifts and tools for predicting outcomes of redistribution, which can assist practitioners in creating management plans and policies.

This study is developing a framework for understanding the impacts of marine species redistribution with a focus on poleward-moving carnivorous whelk species in rocky shorelines from Northern California to Baja, Mexico. Project goals are to 1) quantify the impacts of shifting species on populations and communities in the expanded range; 2) assess whether impacts of shifting species differ between their native and expanded ranges; and 3) predict future impacts under climate warming. The investigator is addressing fundamental questions in community ecology about the degree to which species interactions are density- and context-dependent. She is combining observational and experimental approaches with a broader data synthesis effort to test whether the impacts of species redistribution can be predicted by key indicators of invasion impacts: abundance, trophic level, and impacts in the native range. Empirical data combined with paired demographic and distribution modeling will be used to project future impacts across the expanded ranges of these coastal marine species.